Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided

Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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